Did you miss the first two parts of our three-blog series highlighting our new white paper? Click here to check out part one and here to read part two.
Over the past two weeks, we’ve published blogs with excerpts of our new white paper, “Debunking the biggest myths about California’s economy, population, and tech sector.” Part one debunked California’s so-called population exodus myth, while last week’s blog answered another timely question surrounding the U.S.’s most populous state: Is California experiencing an exodus of businesses? In short: not even close.
This week’s blog, on the third and final part of our white paper, addresses an issue impacting California that’s picked up substantial steam over the past 18 months: tech sector layoffs, and more specifically, layoffs in the Bay Area, which has the U.S.’s single largest tech talent pool.
On one hand, debunking the myth that the Bay Area’s tech sector faces an existential threat from the recent layoffs is simple once you put it into the proper context. The total number of Bay Area tech workers let go by their companies this year was 18,500 as of Oct. 19, when we finalized our white paper. That number seems alarming compared to the total number of tech layoffs last year in the region — 10,400, 78 percent less than 2023’s year-to-date total, according to The Mercury News.
To be sure, the sharp year-over-year increase in layoffs is a cause for concern. And those who've lost their jobs over the past 12 months have been put in an especially precarious position given the high-interest-rate environment and a low unemployment rate (the rate ranges between 3 and 3.5 percent in the Bay Area's core metropolitan areas, situated between San Jose and San Francisco, according to the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. California's unemployment rate was 4.7 percent as of September).
However, those in the press who ask readers whether the uptick in layoffs foreshadows something worse, such as another dot-com bust, are forgetting a simple truth: The Bay Area had 400,000 tech workers as of July. So, if we divide the total number of people laid off between Jan. 1, 2023, and Oct. 19, 2023, by the size of the region’s tech population, our calculator spits out 0.046. Put another way: the number of Bay Area tech layoffs in one of the most challenging years for tech since the 2007-09 Great Recession amounts to less than 5 percent of the region's sector-wide headcount.
If you can only remember one number from this blog, 0.046, or less than 5 percent, is the one. The number underlines the strength of Bay Area tech, which has the highest number of tech roles in any U.S. market, and can be partly attributed to the hiring binge that many of the region’s largest tech companies undertook from the start of the pandemic to mid-2022.
Google parent Alphabet — the single biggest employer in the Bay Area’s Silicon Valley subregion, where it’s based — had over 120,000 employees worldwide in Q1 2020, when Covid-19 became a pandemic. Three years later, its headcount exceeded 190,000 people, as the graph below shows.
News that Google would this year cut 12,000 jobs, or 6 percent of its global workforce, was unsurprisingly front-page news for days when the search giant disclosed its layoff plans in January. Yet as the graph above shows, Alphabet’s decline in headcount between the first and second quarters of this year put only a tiny dent in its 17 consecutive quarters of job gains through the pandemic.
Numerous other Bay Area-based tech companies have had similarly positive pandemic-era job gains. Silicon Valley-based Meta, Facebook’s parent, increased its headcount by 55 percent during the pandemic, jumping to 86,482 employees as of fiscal year 2022.
And Amazon, whose delivery vans have become ubiquitous in the Bay Area despite it being based in Seattle, saw its headcount expand by 88 percent during the pandemic — a staggering run-up that may be whittled down in the coming years as more and more people return to the office, putting downward pressure on demand for remote-work-related products. Nonetheless, the e-commerce company’s hiring gains since 2019 will likely outpace any job losses for the foreseeable future.
In short, the tech sector, and the Bay Area’s corporate landscape at large, are alive and well. The tech sector, like the real estate industry, is cyclical, and it’s no secret that it’s been going through a retrenchment for over a year. The layoffs have underlined the downsides to going on a hiring spree before a sharp rise in interest rates, which ought to serve as a painful learning experience for the companies that failed to account for the last 12 months of rate hikes.
The night, however, is darkest before the dawn, and given how much larger the Bay Area’s tech sector is now than in 2019 — despite the layoffs — the region is on solid footing to scale up once times are better.
If you’re still long on the Bay Area's tech economy like we are, contact us today to learn more about our development pipeline and open product offerings.
Important Disclosures
The contents of this communication: (i) do not constitute an offer of securities or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities, (ii) offers can be made only by the confidential Private Placement Memorandum (the “PPM”) which is available upon request, (iii) do not and cannot replace the PPM and is qualified in its entirety by the PPM, and (iv) may not be relied upon in making an investment decision related to any investment offering by an issuer, or any affiliate, or partner thereof ("Issuer").
All potential investors must read the PPM and no person may invest without acknowledging receipt and complete review of the PPM.
With respect to any performance levels outlined herein, these do not constitute a promise of performance, nor is there any assurance that the investment objectives of any program will be attained. All investments carry the risk of loss of some or all of the principal invested. Assumptions are more fully outlined in the Offering Documents/ PPM for the respective offering. Consult the PPM for investment conditions, risk factors, minimum requirements, fees and expenses and other pertinent information with respect to any investment.
These investment opportunities have not been registered under the Securities Act of 1933 and are being offered pursuant to an exemption therefrom and from applicable state securities laws. All offerings are intended only for accredited investors unless otherwise specified.
Past performance are no guarantee of future results. All information is subject to change. You should always consult a tax professional prior to investing. Investment offerings and investment decisions may only be made on the basis of a confidential private placement memorandum issued by Issuer, or one of its partner/issuers. Issuer does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Thank you for your cooperation.
Real Estate Risk Disclosure:
- There is no guarantee that any strategy will be successful or achieve investment objectives including, among other things, profits, distributions, tax benefits, exit strategy, etc.;
- Potential for property value loss – All real estate investments have the potential to lose value during the life of the investments;
- Change of tax status – The income stream and depreciation schedule for any investment property may affect the property owner’s income bracket and/or tax status. An unfavorable tax ruling may cancel deferral of capital gains and result in immediate tax liabilities;
- Potential for foreclosure – All financed real estate investments have potential for foreclosure;
- Illiquidity – These assets are commonly offered through private placement offerings and are illiquid securities. There is no secondary market for these investments.
- Reduction or Elimination of Monthly Cash Flow Distributions – Like any investment in real estate, if a property unexpectedly loses tenants or sustains substantial damage, there is potential for suspension of cash flow distributions;
- Impact of fees/expenses – Costs associated with the transaction may impact investors’ returns and may outweigh the tax benefits
- Stated tax benefits – Any stated tax benefits are not guaranteed and are subject to changes in the tax code. Speak to your tax professional prior to investing.
Opportunity Zone Disclosures
- Investing in opportunity zones is speculative. Opportunity zones are newly formed entities with no operating history. There is no assurance of investment return, property appreciation, or profits. The ability to resell the fund’s underlying investment properties or businesses is not guaranteed. Investing in opportunity zone funds may involve a higher level of risk than investing in other established real estate offerings.
- Long-term investment. Opportunity zone funds have illiquid underlying investments that may not be easy to sell and the return of capital and realization of gains, if any, from an investment will generally occur only upon the partial or complete disposition or refinancing of such investments.
- Limited secondary market for redemption. Although secondary markets may provide a liquidity option in limited circumstances, the amount you will receive typically is discounted to current valuations.
- Difficult valuation assessment. The portfolio holdings in opportunity zone funds may be difficult to value because financial markets or exchanges do not usually quote or trade the holdings. As such, market prices for most of a fund’s holdings will not be readily available.
- Capital call default consequences. Meeting capital calls to provide managers with the pledged capital is a contractual obligation of each investor. Failure to meet this requirement in a timely manner could elicit significant adverse consequences, including, without limitation, the forfeiture of your interest in the fund.
- Opportunity zone funds may use leverage in connection with certain investments or participate in investments with highly leveraged capital structures. Leverage involves a high degree of financial risk and may increase the exposure of such investments to factors such as rising interest rates, downturns in the economy or deterioration in the condition of the assets underlying such investments.
- Unregistered investment. As with other unregistered investments, the regulatory protections of the Investment Company Act of 1940 are not available with unregistered securities.
- It is possible, due to tax, regulatory, or investment decisions, that a fund, or its investors, are unable realize any tax benefits. You should evaluate the merits of the underlying investment and not solely invest in an opportunity zone fund for any potential tax advantage.
UCME Disclosures:
THIS PRESENTATION IS neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy securities. The offering and sale of interests in uc multifamily equity i llc (“ucme”) is only being made and can only be made by delivery of ucme’s private placement memorandum (“ppm”), CERTAIN ORGANIZATIONAL DOCUMENTS, SUBSCRIPTION AGREEMENT AND CERTAIN OTHER INFORMATION TO BE MADE AVAILABLE TO INVESTORS (“OPERATIVE DOCUMENTS”) BY UCME’S SPONSOR.
This Presentation is for informational and discussion purposes only and is not, and may not be, relied on in any manner as legal, tax, investment, accounting or other advice or as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities of the Fund. Any such offer or solicitation shall only be made pursuant to the final confidential PPM (as amended or supplemented from time to time, and including the subscription agreement attached thereto, the “Subscription Package”) and the Fund’s Operative Documents, which will be furnished to qualified investors on a confidential basis at their request and should be reviewed in connection with any consideration of an investment in the Fund. This Presentation does not constitute a part of the Subscription Package and no person has been authorized to make any statement concerning the Fund other than as will be set forth in the Subscription Package and any representation or information not contained therein may not be relied upon. The information contained in this Presentation must be kept strictly confidential and may not be reproduced (in whole or in part) or redistributed in any format without the express written approval of Urban Catalyst Manager IV LLC (the “Manager”). By accepting this document, the recipient agrees that it will, and will cause its representatives and advisors to, use the information only to evaluate its potential interest in the Fund and for no other purpose and will not, and will cause its representatives and advisors not to, divulge any such information to any other party. Neither the Fund nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein and nothing contained herein should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to past or future performance of the Fund or any other entity. Any potential investor considering an investment in the Fund that is on behalf of an employee benefit plan or individual retirement account (or governmental, church, or foreign plan subject to laws similar to those governing employee benefit plans and individual retirement accounts) is strongly encouraged to consult with its own legal and tax advisers regarding the consequences of such an investment. A prospective investor may only invest in the fund if such person is an accredited investor as defined in rule 501 of regulation d. Investing in the fund will involve significant risks, including possible loss of such person’s entire investment.
There are substantial risks associated with the federal income tax aspects of an investment in the Company. The income tax consequences of an investment in the Company are complex and recent tax legislation has made substantial revisions to the Code. Many of these changes affect the tax benefits generally associated with an investment in real estate. A further discussion of the tax aspects (including other tax risks) of an investment in the Company is set forth in the PPM under “Federal Income Tax Consequences.” Because the tax aspects of the Offering are complex, and certain of the tax consequences may differ depending on individual tax circumstances, prospective investors are urged to consult with and rely on their own tax advisor concerning the Offering’s tax aspects and their individual situation. No representation or warranty of any kind is made with respect to the Internal Revenue Service’s (the “IRS’s”) acceptance of the treatment of any item by the Company or an investor.
It is anticipated that if the Company generates taxable income, such income will be considered UBTI. Tax-exempt entities should consult with their own tax counsel regarding the effect of any UBTI. See the PPM and “Federal Income Tax Consequences – Investment by Qualified Plans, IRAs and Tax-Exempt Entities – Unrelated Business Taxable Income.”
Congress has recently enacted several major tax bills that substantially affect the tax treatment of real estate investments including, but not limited to, the tax provisions of the CARES Act. These changes will have a substantial effect on the type of activities in which the Company intends to engage, and certain of those effects are set forth under the appropriate subheadings under “Federal Income Tax Consequences.” In many instances, Congressional Committee reports have been relied upon for the interpretation and application of these new statutory provisions. While the Code authorizes the Treasury Department to issue extensive substantive regulations regarding recently adopted Code provisions, few have been issued to date. In addition, Congress could make substantial changes in the future to the income tax consequences with respect to an investment in the Company.
An investment in the Fund is speculative, entails a high degree of risk, and no assurance can be given that the Fund’s investment objectives will be achieved or that investors will receive a return of their capital. In considering investment performance information contained in this Presentation, prospective investors should bear in mind that past, targeted or projected performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and there can be no assurance that targeted or projected returns will be achieved, that the Fund will achieve comparable results or that the Fund will be able to implement its investment strategy or achieve its investment objectives. While the Manager’s projected returns are based on assumptions which the Manager believes are reasonable under the circumstances, the actual realized returns on the Manager’s unrealized investment will depend on, among other factors, the value of the asset and market conditions at the time of disposition, any related transaction costs and the timing and manner of sale, all of which may differ from the assumptions and circumstances on which the Manager’s projections are based. Accordingly, the actual realized returns on unrealized investments may differ materially from the Manager’s projected returns indicated herein. There can be no assurance that projected or expected realizations or distributions will occur. Furthermore, prospective investors are encouraged to contact the Manager’s representatives to discuss the procedures and methodologies used to calculate the investment returns and other information provided herein. Certain information contained herein constitutes “forward-looking statements,” which can be identified by the use of terms such as “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue,” “target” or “believe” (or the negatives thereof) or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, such as those set forth in the Subscription Package, actual events or results or actual performance of the Fund may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. As a result, investors should not rely on such forward-looking statements in making their investment decisions.
No representation or warranty is made as to future performance or such forward-looking statements. None of the information contained herein has been filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any securities administrator under any securities laws of any U.S. or non-U.S. jurisdiction or any other U.S. or non-U.S. governmental or self-regulatory authority. No such governmental or self-regulatory authority will pass on the merits of the offering of the Fund or the adequacy of the information contained herein. Any representation to the contrary is unlawful. Statements contained in this Presentation are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of the Manager. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. The performance of the Fund is subject to risks and uncertainties, including those discussed in the Subscription Package. All prospective investors must read and carefully review the PPM in its entirety and including all risk factors and disclosures.
Certain information contained herein may have been obtained from published sources and/or prepared by third parties and, in certain cases, has not been updated through the date hereof. While such sources are believed to be reliable, neither the Fund, the Manager, nor their respective affiliates nor any employee assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. The use of this Presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law. Prospective investors in the Fund should inform themselves as to the legal requirements and tax consequences of an investment in the Fund within the countries of their citizenship, residence, domicile and place of business. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. The products mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries, nor suitable for all types of investors; their value and the income they produce may fluctuate and/or be adversely affected by exchange rates, interest rates, or other factors. Additional information will be provided upon request.
The above material cannot be altered, revised, and/or modified without the express written consent of Urban Catalyst.
